As we move towards the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, we’re going to hear more and more about the loss of manufacturing jobs. This is important - folk have to be able to eat. However, what the politicians aren’t talking about is the fundamental transformation going on in manufacturing and how that will impact citizens. That is important too. Manufacturing as we know it is going away - the notion that we can just “keep jobs here” is naive at best. To put this into context, let’s first reflect on what the word manufacturing means:
Manufacturing (from Latinmanu factura, “making by hand”) is the use of tools and labor to make things for use or sale. The term may refer to a vast range of human activity, from handicraft to high tech, but is most commonly applied to industrial production, in which raw materials are transformed into finished goods on a large scale.
Notice manu as in manual - this definition is in need of an upgrade since so much of what we call manufacturing doesn’t require human hands touching materials. One could argue that that has been true for a century, that we’re actually at Manufacturing 7.0 but I’ll stick with current terminology. Manufacturing 2.0 is a transition phase that will bring dematerialization to the forefront. reBang’s excellent Next Generation of Product Development Tools series is loaded with videos that illustrate how this is happening.
The word “sampling” is probably most often associated with music, but it’s not at all limited to that application. Physical models are sometimes sculpted and their shape digitally sampled, or a previously existing reference might be digitized and used as a scaffold for building a new, virtual model. Or something entirely unrelated can be sampled and turned into a virtual 3D model. Once digitized, there’s not much that can’t be done with digitally sampled information. reBang: Next Generation Product Development Tools, Part 6
This kind of sampling is at the heart of Manufacturing 2.0 and represents a key aspect of Rhythmeering. When Manufacturing 3.0 arrives on the wings of robotics and nanotechnology, man-made items will be works of art and hobby - there won’t be many of today’s manufacturing jobs here or overseas. Sampling and mashups will be important elements of the new industrial base. The government needs to start informing the people and preparing for this future now.
My last post on dematerialization dealt with developments suitable for experienced engineers, but Bug Labs wants to broaden that to include consumers:
Because everything we’re doing is open source, you are free to make it perfect yourself. You want to change something? Go right ahead. And when you do, we’re hoping you share your improvement with everyone else so we all benefit. It’s why we call our work community electronics instead of simply consumer electronics. We, Bug Labs, don’t own the keys to your satisfaction, you do. And this, in our humble opinion, is how it should be.
Whether it’s multi-core approaches such as the Tile64 or FPGA-based approaches such as the OpenSPARC reported on recently, evidence of the dematerialization trend is everywhere. I recently came upon a site that is at the center of this
In those early days of my career, hardware design was a real man’s game. We designed big boxes with loud fans that roared as if boasting of its impressiveness. Then came ASICs where all of sudden your innovation was miniaturized into something only an inch across. Today, chips are disappearing altogether and the real design work is in IP— making chips and systems are simply manufacturing steps.
The focus of an engineer today is either in creating IP, or assembling others IP into dream fulfilling subsystems. The power and influence of the engineer simply keeps expanding, being able to create larger and larger works from the work of others.
Along the way to hardware that is really fluid and adapable, software is weaving its way deeper and deeper into the hardware. A couple of writers envisioned the next near-term steps earlier this year:
… virtualization technologies should be pushed down further into the iron and sold in volume. In short, there should be some way to make these technologies a low-cost part of the system, … it should be made in an on-demand fashion, activated with a key for a nominal fee, complete with physical-to-virtual conversion tools and virtual-to-physical tools to undo the virtualization if customers decide to do that, too.
The effect of free, hardware based virtualization which is automatically there would make for very interesting x86 servers. Even more so with a few on-board, fully virtualized, multi-fabric I/O channels. Kind a baby mainframe.
Maybe it’s a crazy idea. Maybe its a vision of the future of computing.
Now, in the aftermath of the VMWare IPO, we’re seeing it unfold.
“With virtualization, where you can run any operating system on top, it seems a lot more logical that it would be effectively a layer sitting on top of a server,” said Illuminata analyst Gordon Haff. “Why wouldn’t it be supplied with the server?”
XenSource announced XenExpress OEM Edition last week, and market leader VMware this week is announcing VMware ESX Server 3i at its VMworld conference. The products run from flash memory built into a server instead of being installed on the hard drive.
The embedded versions aren’t just a fantasy. VMware has partnerships with IBM, Dell, Hewlett-Packard and Network Appliance. “We expect them to begin integrating ESX Server 3i into their servers later this year or early next,” a VMware representative said.
The move has strategic importance in these relatively early days of virtualization, elevating the profile of virtualization specialists’ products. Getting a foot in the door could help the virtualization specialists get a foot in the doors of customers who might be interested in higher-level products to manage the increasingly sophisticated computing infrastructure that can be built atop virtual machines.
Virtualization has been around for decades, but its inclusion in mainstream computers with x86 chips is bringing it out of the shadows. And the money is following.
Software used in today’s conventional milling machines is helping nanotech researchers make progress in nanomanufacturing:
The new technique suggests that the nanotechnology factories of the future might not operate so differently from existing manufacturing plants.
“If you can take prototyping and nanomanufacturing to a level that leverages what engineers know how to do, then you are ahead of the game,” Clark said. “Most engineers with conventional training don’t think about nanoscale manipulation. But if you want to leverage a workforce that’s already in place, how do you set up the future of manufacturing in a language that engineers already use to communicate? That’s what we’re focused on doing here.”
This should prove to be very helpful because there’s no getting around the strange and often counter-intuitive aspects of the nanoscale realm where thermal and quantum fluctuations make moving molecules from place to place like walking in a hurricane. Similar to the proven patterns used in software virtual machines, the Duke researchers are abstracting out the unfamiliar/counter-intuitive and substituting the more familiar. This is yet another sign of dematerialization and virtualization so I expect it will bear fruit.
In a nutshell, “rapid manufacturing” is poised for an unprecedented explosion of growth in the next 3 to 5 years. To see why this potential exists, it’s necessary to examine a broad set of shaping factors. If only a single segment is explored, significant growth looks to be much further out but when one takes into account the converging sources of influences and innovation at work, a different perspective emerges. in this regard it is helpful to examine some other patterns of technology evolution.
Initially PC’s were no match for mainframes when it came to raw processing power, but their accessibility(price and learning curve) enabled people to do things they simply couldn’t do before. In the process, people pushed the limits of PC’s and accelerated the demand for reducing their limits. They also at the same transformed the design and operation of mainframes - Linux and Java are significant contributors to renewed interest in mainframes. During the early days of PC’s many people didn’t see the potential for rapid growth because PC database programs could only manage a fraction of the data that mainframes did. These skeptics didn’t realize that departments and groups within departments did not need the capacity of a mainframe for many important tasks. They didn’t recognize how big an impact spreadsheets would have or what it would mean to empower thousands of developers previously unable to create solutions because they couldn’t afford the necessary equipment. A similar pattern unfolded for the web, although desktop publishing is probably more relevant to the subject of desktop manufacturing.
I found via reBang to an excellent, but narrowly focused review of a Design News feature on Rapid Manufacturing’s Role in the Factory of the Future. The discussion is valuable but assumes that traditional high production volume factories will continue to dominate the manufacturing landscape forever and ignores overlapping influences. Like mainframes and printing presses, high production volume factories will be with us for a long time, their fall from dominance will happen faster then most people think and they will be significantly transformed by the emerging paradigm. How will this happen? Services such as Xardas and Ponoko are starting to give people the very powerful experience of “holding ideas in their hands” and providing engineers with insights into new forms of fabrication. With 3D printer prices dropping into the consumer electronics range, the number of people and organizations able to fabricate goods from their computers will grow rapidly. Architects, landscapers and engineering entrepreneurs will find immediate uses for these but many folks especially those lacking professional design and manufacturing experience will be frustrated. Parts will break or won’t come out right, but through Supplier Source and other online sources connections to professionals will be found. It’s not hard to envision Google figuring out a fabrication tie-in to it’s 3D Warehouse. All of this activity will expand the base of experiences and provide valuable feedback for engineers and designers. It will also drive demand for higher end 3D fabrication machines, as well as CNC machines.
At some point I expect that Fed-Ex/Kinkos will probably throw their hat in the ring and some distributed manufacturing network startup with have a huge IPO. Perhaps more significantly, a new type of product or service that hasn’t been thought of yet will emerge(think Lotus 1-2-3 or Amazon). One source in the Design News article put the widespread use of direct digital manufacturing 20 years out but by then nanotechnology will have already started having a significant impact. Desktop manufacturing is being driven by exponentially growing factors it’s just always hard to see it in the early stages. I think Ray Kurzweil has it exactly right
Although technology grows in the exponential domain, we humans live in a linear world. So technological trends are not noticed as small levels of technological power are doubled. Then seemingly out of nowhere, a technology explodes into view. For example, when the Internet went from 20,000 to 80,000 nodes over a two year period during the 1980s, this progress remained hidden from the general public. A decade later, when it went from 20 million to 80 million nodes in the same amount of time, the impact was rather conspicuous.
Engineering has been undergoing profound transformations in the last 50 years, going from a discipline which dealt primarily with energy, matter and machines, to one which deals with experiences, knowledge processing and people. These changes in engineering are so fundamental that a new term is required to describe the discipline. Rhythmeering is that term.
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